Internet marketing predictions for 2000

As the new millennium is now upon us, we can stop to reflect on the amazing evolution our society has experienced in the past century and especially in the last decade. From the industrial revolution to the information revolution, we have sustained exciting changes that have literally and completely altered the way we shop, do business and market products. Truly, the Internet has changed everything, from the way we shop to the way we live.

And according to analysts, the information revolution is nearing its peak as we are now entering the next, "big" technological revolution. What is it? Well, in the tradition of new-year predictions often made by futurists, economists and psychics, here's what I think what we should watch out for in the coming 2000's ... First, wireless is going to be huge.

Since Nortel Networks at http://www.nortelnetworks.com has recently unveiled their new fiber optic technology the wireless community has been jumping. According to Cnet, statistics giant Jupiter Communications predicts that all wireless broadband technologies, including satellite services, "will claim about 10 percent of the high-speed Internet market by year 2003" (read the article at http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1004-200-1475148.html).

Harry Dent, who wrote the book "The Roaring 2000's," originally predicted that the Internet would be completely accessed through the power grid -- in other words, the web would be connected through electrical outlets. But the problem is that, in some countries, this is near to impossible due to their complex infrastructure. In the UK for example, each transformer can feed up to 250 homes as opposed to only 5 here in North America.

For this very reason many companies, which have originally jumped on the power grid bandwagon, have abandoned their efforts. But the explosive need for bandwidth will nonetheless push for a better solution. So I predict that fiber optic technology is the future, and WAP ("Wireless Application Protocol"), wireless servers and wireless ISPs being the "next big thing."

During a presentation to my ebusiness class, Peter Robinson, a product manager for Entrust Technologies, spoke about a recent advertisement from cellular phone company Ericsson, which consisted of two simple lines. The top said in big, bold letters, "WAP," followed by an asterisk. The bottom simply added, "For those who want to go lap-topless."

Think of the numerous possibilities that this provides us Internet entrepreneurs and marketers. Keep in mind that wireless communications will go far beyond mobile phones and palm-sized digital assistants (or "PalmPilots"). Wireless technology opens many new doors and I firmly believe that it will provide many opportunities let alone challenges. New products can be created. New distribution channels can be opened. New marketing processes can be developed. And new online business models can be developed.

Certificate authority Entrust Technologies (at http://www.entrust.net) mentioned earlier -- a local company here in Ottawa (Canada) where I live, teach and do business -- were the first to introduce digital certificates for WAP servers, thereby enabling ecommerce through wireless communications. Imagine browsing your web site and ordering your product on a laptop, palm pilot or cellular phone -- securely and instantly, anywhere in the world.

According to a recent article published by the WAP Forum, "Entrust is building the framework that will allow mobile phones to be not only the ubiquitous consumer and ebusiness transaction 'on-ramp' to next generation ecommerce, but the global point-of-sale terminal of choice" (read the article at http://www.wapforum.org/new/121699_entrust.htm).

Now, would it be safe to say that web marketers should include wireless communications in their portfolio right now? Not really. But WAP, which will soon require separate web sites (designed specifically for wireless communications) hosted on distinct servers using CDPD (or "Cellular Digital Packet Data"), should be something into which one should look.

For more information, see:

• http://www.wapforum.org/,
• http://www.forum.nokia.com/developers/wap/wap.html,
• http://www.webproforum.com/wap/index.html,
  http://www.wirelessweek.com/ (ezine on wireless technologies),
• http:/novatelwireless.com/ (wireless Internet service provider)
• And http://www.wap.com.sg/ (cellphone interface application).
  

(Incidentally, the latter of these offers a free download called WAPman, a Windows application providing an WAP-like interface on your desktop, so that you can surf wireless sites as if it were a cellular telephone or palmpilot.)

I do believe WAP and wireless are going to be huge. It's not only due to the fact that wireless will enable ecommerce in a more impulsive, economical and efficient manner (i.e., people browsing the web and ordering online what they want, where they want and when they want), or that LANs, Intranets and Extranets will be devoid of wrangling cables, but also because wireless will create a whole new ebusiness model with so many applications.

Dylan Tweney, one of my respected Internet gurus, said in a recent article that the world is going wireless (http://tweney.com/archive/future.htm). The following is a quote from Tweney's article, which is a real eye-opener:

"Wireless technologies will help integrate the Internet into our lives in obvious, in your-face ways: The web browser on your handheld, the GPS (or 'Global Positioning System') and mapping device in your car, the ability to trade stocks on your cell phone. But they will also affect us in subtler, under-the-hood ways: The web server in your car's engine that sends information to your mechanic. The IP network that lets your home appliances communicate with one another and with central control systems. The office network that doesn't require you to pull cable through the whole building."

In short, it's all about broadband -- which is my second prediction (again, the growth of fiber optic technology). Fiber optics is growing at incredible speeds, simply because, with single strand fibers now able to carry over 6 terrabytes per second) people are realizing that fiber optics is an effective technology. Take a look at news reports -- seldom do you see today reports that say "Live via satellite." It's the beauty of fiber optics. No more cable, DSL or modems. Everything will (literally) be in the palm of your hand in a nanosecond.

My final prediction (but not my last) is the eruption of vortals (or vertical portals). Niche marketing is the wave of the future because of the explosive rate of competition and population on the web. As I mentioned previously, statistics prove that the marketplace is becoming more and more fragmented, and therefore becoming more difficult to access. Take for instance the TV. In the 70's, there were only 12 channels. But with the help of satellites, fiber optics and digital technology, we are now faced with over 500 of them.

Simply put, today people are bombarded and overwhelmed with information -- and they are so at an increasingly dizzying rate. Therefore, when it comes to the Internet, trying to find specific kinds of information, stores or products (especially online from, say, generalized portals) is now quite a dizzying task. In short, people are simply drowning in CHOICE.

This is where the growing popularity of niche-based portals comes in. Rather than searching for a site on AltaVista and *maybe* coming up with a relevant search result (which may appear on the 1,000th page), a vortal provides very specific, industry-based search results. Take http://www.iVillage.com, a portal that caters to women only.

In essence, the adage "less is more" is indeed important on the web and it will be even more so in the 2000's and beyond. Too many Internet marketers blindly attempt to be "all things to all people" and fail to capture the essence of the Internet -- which is to corner a specific niche (a theme or idea) in a global marketplace. As for a marketing strategy, it is simpler due to the fact that the web lacks physicality and target markets are a challenge to find.

An excellent article by Richard Benvin of Absolute Authority (a vortal-like site catering to gurus in various industries), entitled "Vertical Portals: The Hottest New Trend on the Net?" (see http://www.absoluteauthority.com/), explains the vortal's growing trend from the Internet marketer's perspective.

Nevertheless, aside from the wireless boom ecommerce is surely going to take a big place in the next year if not millennium. Also, Internet marketing will undergo many changes. While the basics will never change, new emerging technologies, business models, online applications, webmaster resources and marketing techniques will surely continue to grow.

This is why it is so important, for you the Internet marketer or entrepreneur, to remain abreast of these exciting changes -- an opportunity may be waiting just around the corner. Having fresh information is crucial to your survival. Therefore, let us ask you this final question: Will keeping your business and marketing arsenal up-to-date be your new year's resolution?